The Sequester and Pending Enactment of FY 2013 Appropriations

The Sequester and Pending Enactment of FY 2013 Appropriations:

How to Estimate Voucher Program Eligibility, Funding, and Model Program Contingencies

Friday, March 22, 2013

Part I:  noon – 3:00 pm (EDT) 

All PHAs administering Section 8 vouchers, can access valuable program data to help them better understand their HAP and administrative fee expenses as well as the attendant underlying causes for their expenses.  This session will provide an illustrated step-by-step explanation of how to access important PIC data through HUD’s Adhoc Report, coupled with examples of how PIC data can be used to help PHAs model budget contingencies and cost reduction measures in 2013 and beyond.  PHA and HUD panelists will help make this something that all PHAs can implement.  This session is for PHAs that have a customized software system or utilize their own spreadsheets, use HUD’s HCV Two-Year Forecasting Tool (v. 8.8), and/or have no customized software program.  All of the mathematical examples to be presented are the same as would be generated by using the HUD’s spreadsheet.

The margin of error in making accurate assumptions about per voucher HAP costs, turnover rates, lowering voucher payment standards or any other cost reduction measures is razor thin in 2013 and possibly into the future.  What used to be a sufficient level of analysis in the past may not be precise enough in 2013 and beyond.  If some PHAs think they already know the answers to all of the issues they are facing, think again.  Do you know what the average voucher HAP costs are for per voucher-assisted households leaving the program through turnover vs. your PHA’s average per voucher HAP costs?  Do you know your PHA’s actual projected average voucher HAP costs for 2013 vs. the amount of HUD’s inflated per voucher HAP costs for your PHA and the implications?  If you model the impacts of possible voucher payment standard reductions, with or without a waiver approval from HUD, do your projections account for the wide range of related programmatic impacts and are they accurate?  It is critically important that PHAs have a high degree of reliability in their estimates and cost saving measures well before they get towards the end of a calendar year, when the adverse consequences of insufficiently accurate estimates, assumptions and cost modeling become increasingly dire.

Listed below is an outline of the topics that will be covered in first half of this session:

1.      Basics 101 – Background

2.      Data 101 - Extracting Information From PIC

3.      Data 201 - Analyzing Data

4.      Data 301 - Managing Data

5.      Forecasting - 101 Estimating Funding Levels

6.      Forecasting - 201 Is There Enough Money?

7.      Forecasting - 301 Sequestration

8.      Forecasting - 401 Beyond Sequestration

9.      Questions and Answers

Listed below is a summary of the topics that will be covered in second half of this session.

To assist PHAs maximize their Housing Assistance Payment and Net Restricted Asset funding to serve the greatest number of families possible each calendar year, HUD developed and issued an updated version of its HCV two year forecasting spreadsheet (v. 8.8) to PHAs.  HUD will go through the basics and finer points of how to utilize the spreadsheet.  This part of the webinar will also feature an extensive question and answer period.  By learning the basics and fine points of how to utilize all of the features of HUD’s HCV Two-Year Forecasting Tool (v. 8.8), benefits include:

·         Pinpointing the optimum number of vouchers to issue to maximize leasing without over-spending available HAP funding or over-leasing the  baseline number of vouchers in a calendar year;

·         More accurate predictions of the share of voucher holders that will lease up, so PHA staff can issue the appropriate number of vouchers (if applicable) to maintain high utilization rates and earn maximum administrative fee revenues;

·         Reducing the number of households that need to go through the intake, eligibility determination, briefing and HQS inspection processes by maximizing all types of success rates thereby reducing PHAs’ administrative fee expenses;

·         Minimizing much of the unpredictability associated with voucher leasing and budget utilization’s never ending “roller coaster ride” of increased and decreasing leasing and transition towards greater stability of their voucher operations over a two year period; 

·         Determining how to best deploy limited staff resources to the admissions, occupancy and initial leasing side of their operations and the “payback” resulting from such moves over several months and throughout the years to come;

·         Modeling different scenarios on voucher issuance and payment standards to help each PHA assess their calendar year-to-date lease-up and budget utilization rates; and

·         Evaluating leasing and cost estimates versus actual program performance so that agencies can make necessary adjustments throughout the calendar year.


Mr. Jonathan Zimmerman

Senior Policy Advisor



Mr. Bryan Hoffman

Executive Director

Lebanon County Housing Authority (PA)


Mr. Michael LaRiccia

Program Advisor

HUD PIH Office of Field Operations

Related Resources – Part I

To maximize our members and panelists’ time during parts I & II of NAHRO’s March 22, 2013 webinars, we strongly encourage our members to make use of these related resources prior to the webinar.  After registering for this webinar, these and other materials will be loaded into a web browser for use and discussion with the panelists.